NEW TAIPEI CITY, Taiwan — China’s newest air-to-air missile, the PL-16, could vie with an equivalent advance by the U.S. military and give the People’s Liberation Army an edge in any Asia-Pacific conflicts because of its increased travel distance and a second-wind feature, experts say.
The PL-16 beyond-visual-range missile as described in social and trade media would answer Lockheed Martin’s AIM-260 Joint Advanced Tactical Missile (JATM) for the U.S. armed forces, analysts believe, and improve on previous generations developed in China.
They say China’s missile boasts a long total flight distance estimated at 200 to 300 kilometers (124 to 186 miles) and dual-pulse or variable-thrust rocket motor technology that allow for a second burst of propulsion late in flight, the Indian defense news portal Indian Defence Research Wing said in a June 3 analysis.
Lockheed Martin’s system is also expected to feature extra propulsion for flights beyond visual range and travel at least 200 kilometers.
The PL-16’s specs would let it chase large, slower-moving aircraft, said Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst for defense strategy and national security with the Australian Strategic Policy Institute. That chase could be a battle changer.
“What matters at those long ranges is maneuverability in the terminal phase and guidance,” Davis said. The PL-16 is designed, he said, to hit airborne early warning and control platforms, refueling tankers and reconnaissance aircraft, so “the likelihood of a kill, even at very long range is very high.
“The People’s Liberation Army Air Force’s strategy here is clear – take out the key combat enablers for the U.S. Air Force and the U.S. Navy, as well as allied forces, and the U.S. and its allies can no longer project naval air power,” Davis said.
“The JTAM was a response to the PL-15, so there is an interesting race between China and the U.S. on beyond-visual-range air-to-air missiles underway,” he added. “The key challenge is how quickly the U.S. can get JATM into production, because the Chinese will be moving very fast with PL-16 production.”
It’s unclear whether Washington would jump into any war with Beijing over Taiwan, a decades-old flashpoint, or in the South China Sea where American treaty ally the Philippines is wrangling for control of tiny islets with the Chinese. The U.S. military maintains bases in nearby Guam, Hawaii and Japan in case of an Indo-Pacific conflict.
“I’m pretty sure (PL-16) is going to be a headache for bigger bombers, B52 and the likes, if in range, but I am not quite sure about other smaller, nimbler, faster platforms,” said Enrico Cau, an associate researcher at the Taiwan Strategy Research Association think tank.
The missiles may fit adeptly into the bays of Chinese stealth fighters such as the J-20 and upcoming J-35, the Indian Defence Research Wing said.
A J-20 aircraft that can carry four earlier-generation PL-15 missiles in its internal weapons bay would be able to take as many as six PL-16s, said Huang Chung-ting, associate research fellow with the Institute for National Defense and Security Research in Taipei.
“This means a J-20 can engage not only one or two more targets but also has a greater capacity to remain in the combat zone after the initial attack, rather than having to retreat after running out of missiles,” Huang said.
With no confirmation from Beijing about the PL-16’s development, analysts and media outlets are relying largely on leaked, sometimes second-hand information including presentation slides shown at a Chinese military aviation seminar.
A post to the image-sharing platform Imgur.com says the Chinese missiles would be four meters long, 203 millimeters in diameter and 200 kilograms.
The PL prefix stands for “Pi Li”, which is Chinese for “thunderbolt.”
The PL-16’s more than 10-year-old predecessor, the PL-15, can fly 200 kilometers, twice as far as the earlier PL-12 and more than three times the maximum distance of the oldest model, PL-11, according to the leaked presentation slides.
“China may indeed be developing a new air-to-air weapon that saves more (aircraft) bay space and allows the J-20 to carry more missiles — this general direction has a certain degree of credibility,” Huang said.
But he cautioned that information online today doesn’t confirm the PL-16’s specs, including its range and type of propulsion technology. Huang said the online material also cannot determine whether the PL-16 has been put into mass use.
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